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Oilprices appear to be stuck in the $50s per barrel, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t serious supply risks to the market. An unexpected disruption could occur at any moment, as has happened in the past, leading to a sudden and sharp jump in prices. The threat of an outage will carry more weight as the oil market tightens.
Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the status of being the top crude oil exporter in the world. With record production of 10.564 million barrels per day in June 2015, Saudi Arabia has been one of the major driving forces behind the current oilprice slump. Is Saudi Arabia losing the oilprice war? “It
Oilprices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in US shale production. Aside from a single week in October, the US oil industry has deployed more rigs in every week dating back to June, a remarkable run that has resulted in more than 200 fresh rigs drilling for oil.
Oilprices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase. That has sparked a renewed sense of optimism among oil traders.
The impact of rising oilprices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oilprices. by David Yager for Oilprice.com.
million barrels daily, including from Russia, to reverse the free fall of oilprices. A recent report from Capital Economics said Saudi Arabia has its problems but it could withstand lower oilprices without feeling too much of a pinch. Saudi Arabia cannot afford another slump in oilprices,” he warns. “It
The EIA even predicts that OPEC’s net oil exports (excluding Iran) could fall to as low as $380 billion in 2015. With the huge reduction in its revenues and growing discomfort among its members such as Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria over its current production levels, is OPEC really getting weaker? Nigeria’s dilemma.
Moreover, Indian refiners are now moving away from Saudi Arabia which was previously India’s largest crude oil supplier. Indian refiners are now buying more crude oil from Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela and Mexico. As a result, Saudi Arabia was forced to offer discounts on its heavy and sour grade of crude oil to its Asian customers.
Oilprices are probably already high enough to spark a rebound in shale production. Even when US oil production hit a peak at 9.7 By the third quarter, oilprices had climbed back to above $40 and traded at around $50 per barrel for some time, replenishing some lost revenue. by Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com.
The IHS Markit report, entitled: “Back to the Basins: International Shorter-Cycle Opportunities,” initially assessed five, short-cycle projects outside the US in mature, late-life basins in Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Brazil and the North Sea, and included both shallow water and mature, onshore areas that break even at per-barrel costs under US$40.
A fourth volume examining energy security in Nigeria and other nations in the Gulf of Guinea is scheduled for later publication. Notable examples of nations where security shortfalls are significantly impeding investment and production are Nigeria; Iraq; Sudan; and, most recently, Libya. Additionally, U.S.
OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oilprices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia's role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil.
The Saudi decision to let the market set prices and to pursue market share, has led to steep declines in crude and petroleum product prices. The decision also has impacted natural gas export prices negatively, since, for Russia's long-term supply agreements, they wholly or partially are indexed to oilprices.
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