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The impact of rising oilprices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oilprices. by David Yager for Oilprice.com.
The “Arab Spring” affected oil and gas supplies—most notably the complete, albeit temporary, loss of Libyan supply—while the tragic Fukushima accident in Japan had knock-on effects for nuclear and other energy sources around the world. Oil consumption reached 88 million barrels per day (bpd) after a below average rise of 0.6
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has been the most talked about international organization among investors, analysts and international political lobbies in the last few months. The EIA even predicts that OPEC’s net oil exports (excluding Iran) could fall to as low as $380 billion in 2015.
OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oilprices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia's role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil.
The Saudi decision to let the market set prices and to pursue market share, has led to steep declines in crude and petroleum product prices. The decision also has impacted natural gas export prices negatively, since, for Russia's long-term supply agreements, they wholly or partially are indexed to oilprices.
Notable examples of nations where security shortfalls are significantly impeding investment and production are Nigeria; Iraq; Sudan; and, most recently, Libya. While a production plateau is far less catastrophic than a sharp peak and rapid decline, it is likely that oilprices could be both high and very volatile during the plateau period.
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