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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

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Accenture has identified 12 technologies that it concludes have the potential to disrupt the current views of transport fuels supply, demand and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date. Source: Accenture. Click to enlarge.

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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Despite the projected increase in LDV miles traveled, energy consumption for LDVs further decreases after 2025, to 13.0 Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. After 2015, the Brent price increases, reaching $163 per barrel in 2040, as growing demand leads to the development of more costly resources.

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Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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In the OPT scenario, estimated well-to-wheels GHG emissions from full-size BEVs with 100-mile range are 62 gCO 2 -e mi –1 in 2050, while those from full-size ICEVs are 121 gCO 2 -e mi –1. power plants and refineries) and in turn to the transportation, residential, industrial, and commercial end-use sectors.

Emissions 150
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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As a result, annual increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in LDVs average 0.9% Personal air travel (billion seat-miles) grows by an average of 0.7% Some other key findings of the AEO2014 Reference case include: Low natural gas prices boost natural gas-intensive industries. from 2012 to 2040, compared to 1.2%

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Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

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Technically feasible levels of energy efficiency and decarbonized energy supply alone will not be sufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, according to a detailed modeling of the California economy performed by a team from Energy and Environmental Economics, the Monterey. Williams et al. Click to enlarge.

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