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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. In a speech made at the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators’ 2017 International Petroleum Summit, Johnston laid out his concerns for the future of oil.

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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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IEO2014 projections of future liquids balances include two broad categories: crude and lease condensate and other liquid fuels. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain.

Asia 341
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$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

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OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past.

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EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oil price in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040, according to IEO2013.

2010 317
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EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

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According to the IEO2021 Reference case, which projects future energy trends based on current laws and regulations, renewable energy consumption has the strongest growth among energy sources through 2050. EIA projects electricity generation to almost double in developing non-OECD countries by 2050. —Stephen Nalley.

Global 259
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Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

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The results of a new, comprehensive modeling study characterizing light-duty electric drive vehicle (EDV) deployment in the US over 108 discrete scenarios do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x as EDV deployment increases.

Emissions 236
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Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

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Due to the numerous uncertainties, they used a parametric approach to examine a spectrum of possible futures, instead of highlighting a few scenarios. The model has four sub-components: vehicle, fuel production, electricity grid; and energy supply. This oil price encourages biofuel use in the RFS2 timeframe, but not in the long run.