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As oilprices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. In a speech made at the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators’ 2017 International Petroleum Summit, Johnston laid out his concerns for the future of oil.
IEO2014 projections of future liquids balances include two broad categories: crude and lease condensate and other liquid fuels. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain.
OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past.
Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oilprice in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040, according to IEO2013.
According to the IEO2021 Reference case, which projects future energy trends based on current laws and regulations, renewable energy consumption has the strongest growth among energy sources through 2050. EIA projects electricity generation to almost double in developing non-OECD countries by 2050. —Stephen Nalley.
The results of a new, comprehensive modeling study characterizing light-duty electric drive vehicle (EDV) deployment in the US over 108 discrete scenarios do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x as EDV deployment increases.
Due to the numerous uncertainties, they used a parametric approach to examine a spectrum of possible futures, instead of highlighting a few scenarios. The model has four sub-components: vehicle, fuel production, electricity grid; and energy supply. This oilprice encourages biofuel use in the RFS2 timeframe, but not in the long run.
World oilprices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.
A new study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that the Kerry-Lieberman “American Power Act”—the energy and climate change legislation recently introduced in the Senate ( earlier post )—would reduced US oil imports by 33-40% below current levels and by 9-19% below projected business-as-usual levels by 2030.
Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles are 65% lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the year before, with annual sales in 2035 estimated to be about 119,000. Reductions in battery electric vehicles are offset by increased sales of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which grow to about 1.3 million, or less than one-half the 2.9
According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. electricity supply to provide the necessary protections from higher voltages. Source: AECOM.
Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. The number of people without access to electricity remained unacceptably high at 1.3 The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to almost 1.7
The study, in press in the Journal of Power Sources , examines the efficiency and costs of current and future EVs, as well as their impact on electricity demand and infrastructure for generation and distribution, and thereby on GHG emissions. They assumed an oilprice of US$80/bbl, close to the short-term.
General Motors and Hawaii’s The Gas Company (TGC), the state’s major gas energy provider, are collaborating on a hydrogen infrastructure project. Fuel prices are among the highest in the US. Electricity costs are the highest in the US. It has the ability to make excess hydrogen from the process and add to the gas stream.
The brief concentrates on six topics: climate change policy, carbon capture and storage policy, oil security policy, energy-technology innovation policy, electricity market structure, and infrastructure policy. Oil security policy. If the price later rose above $90, the tax would disappear.
Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand. natural gas vehicles) sectors.
There have been 5 recession since then until now and I wanted to see if Oil had anything to do with them, because deep in my heart, I knew the most recent recession was directly caused by the oilprice spikes that started in 2007 and peaked in 2008. OPEC quadrupled the price of oil and the US quickly fell into recession.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. With greater U.S.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects higher-than-average natural gasprices globally as demand remains high this winter in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and inventories remain low. That price will be the highest inflation-adjusted monthly average price since 2008.
The transportation sector thus represents a significant fraction of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions both globally and in the US—light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are responsible for 17.5% Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oilprices and oilprice volatility.
Short-term oil demand is still growing strong and will continue to do so through the end of 2020 despite the market’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and the forecasted future plateau in oil demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit, a global business information provider. Source: IHS Markit 2018.
EIA’s AEO2012 projects a continued decline in US imports of liquid fuels due to increased production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency. EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
Gas Conditioning. Projected output of the Clinton Project is a maximum 13,000 barrels of diesel per day (15,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day or 5.3 Syngas projects about a 10% ROI at US$60/barrel of crude, which higher returns at higher oilprices. Syngas’s Coal/Biomass-to-Liquid (CBTL) Project in South Australia.
Energy executives expect continued volatility in the price-per-barrel of oil for the remainder of the year, with 64% predicting crude prices to exceed $121 per barrel. Increased production of shale gas in North America could have profound implications on the global energy sector. Alternative energy sources.
DNV GL has released a position paper on the future alternative fuel mix for global shipping. DNV GL is studying a number of alternative fuels or energy carriers that are already used or could be potentially used in shipping in the future. Well-to-Propeller GHG emissions results for marine alternative fuels. Source: DNV GL.
The analysis examines how these global forces may impact business and industry; calculates the environmental costs to business; and calls for business and policymakers to work more closely to mitigate future business risk and act on opportunities. Global food prices are predicted to rise 70 to 90 percent by 2030.
Examples of emerging oil sands related technologies and trade-offs. Debate about the future of oil sands development is so contentious that even the name of the resource is disputed: proponents typically use oil sands while opponents use tar sands. Credit: ACS, Bergerson and Keith. Click to enlarge. Bergerson and Keith.
World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. Nonetheless, high oilprices pushed production from the Canadian oil sands to 1.2 Total gas production grew 3.8% in 2008 to reach 27.4
When reports emerged that India and China are in talks about forming an oil buyers’ club , OPEC was probably too busy with its upcoming June 22 meeting to concern itself with that dangerous alliance. The reason they are likely to join in is that unlike in previous oilprice cycles, now there are alternatives to fossil fuels.
In their a paper published in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology , Dr. Adam Brandt and his colleagues used historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services; (b) all liquid fuels; and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Historical scenario. (A)
The total cost of ownership includes the vehicle price, annual fuel and maintenance costs and insurance. Future costs have been discounted at 7%. The move towards a plug-in electric vehicle market also generates large savings in greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions. Economic Viability of Electric Vehicles”.
When reports emerged that India and China are in talks about forming an oil buyers’ club , OPEC was probably too busy with its upcoming June 22 meeting to concern itself with that dangerous alliance. The reason they are likely to join in is that unlike in previous oilprice cycles, now there are alternatives to fossil fuels.
Most notably, a rise in Saudi crude-oil output could trigger a damaging period of global oversupply, said Jim Krane, the Wallace S. This glut could be exacerbated by future carbon taxes and other policy restrictions on fossil fuels, he said. Further, in theory, higher oil production also shortens the time horizon to full depletion.
integrating biological and thermochemical processing to produce biofuels and/or power could offer similar, if not lower, efficiencies and costs and very large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions compared to petroleum-derived fuel, according to a comparative analysis of 14 mature technology biomass refining scenarios.
of first-generation, land-using biofuels in EU road transport fuels delivers a net greenhouse gas reduction benefit (13 Mt CO 2 savings in a 20-year horizon) even after factoring in indirect land use change (ILUC) effects. Renewable energy options for road transport included first- and second-generation biofuels and electricity.
With the successful scale-up of this technology, it is believed that Gevo’s HEDFs could be produced at a lower cost than the petroleum-based equivalent, even at current oilprices. HEDFs are currently used in air and sea-launched cruise missiles used by the US military forces. —Dr.
Without significant additional policy interventions to induce market penetration of breakthrough passenger car and aircraft technologies, the overall European (EU27) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals for 2050 will be difficult to meet, according to a new study by researchers from the University of Cambridge, Stanford University and MIT.
In two other scenarios considered, a high oilprice scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. Electric Cars in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030” was written by Thomas Becker, a Ph.D.
The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. DOE’s most significant role in transport research is here. Vehicle Electrification.
Cautioning that the development and commercialization of the electric car is “ not a sprint, but a marathon ”, Volkswagen AG Chairman of the Board of Management Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn said that Volkswagen would introduce its first electric vehicles based on the up! VW and the electric car. in pure electric vehicles in 2020.
A new study by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder projects the emission impacts of the widespread introduction of inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. The work is reported in a paper in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.
Accenture defined disruptive fuel technologies as those that: Reduce hydrocarbon fuel demand by more than 20% by 2030; Save greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by more than 30% relative to the hydrocarbons they replace; Will be commercial in less than five years; and. Will be competitive at an oilprice of $45 to $90 at their commercial date.
Is transitioning to more electric vehicles (EVs) good or bad for the economy overall? Boise, ID According to the S&P Global Mobility Forecast, EV sales have surged so substantially over the past two decades that about 50 percent of the vehicles on the road by 2040 are projected to be electric. — Richard T., will be required.
The report, “ Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 ”, concludes that biomass, hydropower, geothermal and onshore wind are all competitive with or cheaper than coal, oil and gas-fired power stations, even without financial support and despite falling oilprices. Real weighted average cost of capital is 7.5%
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