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IHS Markit: small long-term change for Canadian oil sands despite COVID-19 Shock & largest annual production decline in 2020

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Canadian oil sands production is expected to decline by nearly 175,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2020 as a result of COVID-19—the largest annual decline on record. The new forecast by the IHS Markit Oil Sands Dialogue , which takes into account the “COVID-19 shock,” projects Canadian oil sands production to reach 3.8

Oil-Sands 221
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IHS Markit: Canadian oil sands production to be ~1M barrels higher by 2030 but with lower annual growth; boosted by deterioration in Venezuela

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Canadian oil sands production is set to enter a period of slower annual production growth compared to previous years. IHS Markit expects average year-on-year supply additions to be below 100,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the coming decade. —Kevin Birn.

Oil-Sands 170
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Study finds plausibly high volumes of Canadian oil sands crudes in US refineries in 2025 would lead to modest increases in refinery CO2 emissions

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An analysis of the US refining sector, based on linear programming (LP) modeling, finds that refining plausibly high volumes of Canadian oil sands crudes in US refineries in 2025 would lead to a modest increase in refinery CO 2 emissions (ranging between 5.4% to 9.3%) from a 2010 baseline, depending upon the supply scenario.

Oil-Sands 247
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 220
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Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Source: Maugeri 2012.

Oil 261
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Follow the sand to the real fracking boom

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When it takes up to four million pounds of sand to frack a single well, it’s no wonder that demand is outpacing supply and frack sand producers are becoming the biggest behind-the-scenes beneficiaries of the American oil and gas boom. says the output of wells is up to 30% higher when they are blasted with more sand.

Oil-Sands 262
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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. OPEC oil producers are the largest source of additional liquid fuel supply between 2010 and 2040.

Asia 341