Economy, Fuel Economy, Oil Prices and Standards

Study estimates fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles from 1975–2018 saved 2T gallons of fuel, 17B tons of CO2

Green Car Congress

MAY 3, 2020

A team from the University of Tennessee and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has the fuel savings due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years amount to approximately two trillion gallons of gasoline. Also since 1975, light-duty vehicle travel increased by 134% while fuel use increased by only 37%.

Fuel Economy

Fuel Economy Economy Light 2018

EIA: world petroleum use sets record high in 2012 despite declines in North America and Europe

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 27, 2013

The rapidly industrializing economies of China and India fueled much of Asia’s demand increase, growing 2.8 If China’s use of petroleum continues to grow as projected, it is expected to replace the United States as the world’s largest net oil importer this fall. Between 2008 and 2012, Asia’s consumption increased by 4.4

North America

North America 2012 America Europe

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

Compared to the reference case, in which gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant through 2050 (BAU), OPT results in 16% and 36% reductions in LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2030 and 2050, respectively, corresponding to 5% and 9% reductions in economy-wide emissions. Credit: ACS, Keshavarzmohammadian et al. Click to enlarge.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to incorporation of the model year 2017 to 2025 GHG and CAFE standards for LDVs. Growth in diesel fuel consumption will be moderated by the increased use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

Green Car Congress

APRIL 8, 2015

The recent dip in global oil prices has weakened this push, particularly in North America, where the market for stop-start vehicles (SSVs) has also suffered from some bad press about the performance of the first systems introduced. This also offers opportunities for other engine efficiencies such as electric boost.

Light

Light North America Global Sale

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. T he Brent crude oil spot price declines from $112 per barrel (bbl) (in 2012 dollars) in 2012 to $92/bbl in 2017. per year, from 21.5

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also incorporated California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard—which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10% from 2012 through 2020, and incorporated changes in environmental rules at the State level. Unconventional vehicle sales. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

Emissions per capita fall by an average of 1% per year from 2005 to 2035, as growth in demand for transportation fuels is moderated by higher energy prices and Federal fuel economy standards. World oil prices rise in the Reference case, as pressure from growth in global demand continues.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

Perspective: US Needs to Transition to Hydrous Ethanol as the Primary Renewable Transportation Fuel

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 30, 2009

The oil price shocks of the 1970s led the Brazilian government to address the strain high prices were placing on its fragile economy. Brazil, the largest and most populous country in South America, was importing 80% of its oil and 40% of its foreign exchange was used to pay for that imported oil.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Renewable Gasoline-Electric

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

DOE recognizes that technology developments can help make vehicles more efficient and alternative fuels more economic, but the deployment of any technologies it helps develop is largely determined by policies, such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. Impartial DOE research can help inform these standards.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Perspective: Ending Oils Monopolya Blueprint for Mobility Choice

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2009

Oil is a strategic commodity second to none—it underlies the global economy and even the American way of life. Of course, other countries benefit from this fact, with about $900 million flowing out of the US to buy foreign oil every day, and about 40% of that going to OPEC. [

Oil

Oil Transportation Congress Fuel Economy

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

Despite the growth in low-carbon sources of energy, fossil fuels remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported. The cost of fossil-fuel subsidies has been driven up by higher oil prices; they remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, where momentum towards their reform appears to have been lost.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

Costs will decline with technology improvements and economies of scale, but Li-ion batteries are already being produced in great numbers for consumer devices and are well along their learning curves, according to the NRC report. Click to enlarge.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010. The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to almost 1.7

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Energy

EV Driven

Study estimates fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles from 1975–2018 saved 2T gallons of fuel, 17B tons of CO2

EIA: world petroleum use sets record high in 2012 despite declines in North America and Europe

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Perspective: US Needs to Transition to Hydrous Ethanol as the Primary Renewable Transportation Fuel

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Perspective: Ending Oils Monopolya Blueprint for Mobility Choice

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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