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Understanding the variability of GHG life cycle studies of oil sands production

Green Car Congress

Full-fuel-cycle GHG emissions estimates for reformulated gasoline pathways by LCA study. He found that the variation in oil sands GHG estimates is due to a variety of causes. These include oil sands, enhanced oil recovery, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids synthetic fuels, and oil shale.

Oil-Sands 225
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Argonne study finds shale gas GHG lifecycle emissions 6% lower than natural gas, 23% lower than gasoline and 33% lower than coal; upstream methane leakage a key contributor

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Gasoline section shows results for fuel derived from both conventional oil and oil sands. The development of this resource has generated interest in expanding NG usage in areas such as electricity generation and transportation. Expansion bars show the components of fuel production. Credit: ACS, Burnham et al.

Gas 284
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ExxonMobil Outlook projects hybrids and advanced vehicles to account for nearly 50% of cars globally by 2040; fuel demand for for personal vehicles to peak and decline, while commercial transportation demand rises 70%

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While oil will remain the most widely used fuel, overall energy demand will be reshaped by a continued shift toward less-carbon-intensive energy source as well as steep improvements in energy efficiency in areas such as transportation, where the expanded use of advanced and hybrid vehicles will help push average new-car fuel economy to 48 mpg (4.9

Personal 408
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New petroleum refining lifecycle model finds the variability in GHG emissions from refining different crudes as significant as magnitude expected in upstream operations

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Comparison of GHGenius, JACOBS, TIAX, and the new PRELIM gasoline greenhouse gas (GHG) estimates using base case estimates and variations from the scenario analysis. Annual GHG emissions from a large refinery are comparable to the emissions of a typical 500 MW coal-fired power plant. Credit: ACS, Abella and Bergerson. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 236
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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The growth reflects an expected 90% increase in electricity use, led by developing countries where 1.3 billion people are currently without access to electricity. Over the same period, electric and plug-in vehicles are expected to grow to about 70 million cars, or less than 5 percent of the total fleet. Transportation.

Oil-Sands 309
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Researchers describe the “where” and “when” of life cycle emissions from gasoline and ethanol in the US

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Researchers from the University of Minnesota have produced a spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventory (LCI) of air pollutants from gasoline, ethanol derived from corn grain, and ethanol from corn stover for the contiguous US (the lower 48 states). Credit: ACS, Tessum et al. Click to enlarge. the contiguous US).

Gasoline 236
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the trade of oil and other liquids. A major shift is seen as North America will likely become a net exporter of liquids by 2020 as supplies of tight oil, natural gas liquids and bitumen from oil sands increase. l/100 km) in 2040, compared to about 25 mpg (9.4

Energy 252