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Understanding the variability of GHG life cycle studies of oil sands production

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In a paper published in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology , Stanford University assistant professor Adam Brandt reviews a number of recent life cycle assessment (LCA) studies calculating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from oil sands extraction, upgrading, and refining pathways—the results of which vary considerably.

Oil-Sands 225
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands 220
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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By 2040, hybrids are expected to account for about 35% of the global light-duty vehicle fleet, up from less than 1% in 2010. In 2010 China had only about five light-duty vehicles per 100 people, while India had less than two per 100 people; this compares to about 75 vehicles for every 100 people in the United States. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 309
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New petroleum refining lifecycle model finds the variability in GHG emissions from refining different crudes as significant as magnitude expected in upstream operations

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PRELIM uses a more comprehensive range of crude oil quality and refinery configurations than used in earlier models and can quantify energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with detail and transparency the better to inform policy analysis, the duo suggests. Click to enlarge. —Abella and Bergerson.

Oil-Sands 236
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Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. 2010, to above 140 $/bbl in constant 2010 dollars).

Oil 207
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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ExxonMobil focused particularly on three groups of countries in projecting future energy trends: China and India, which are expected to account for half the growth in global energy demand because these two developing economies will lead the world in terms of population size and the pace of growth in standards of living. billion in 2040.

Energy 252
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National Academies Report Examines Hidden Cost of Energy Production and Use in US; Estimates $120B in 2005

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Health and other non-climate damages by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light-duty automobiles in 2005 (top) and 2030 (bottom). GHG emissions (grams CO 2 -eq)/VMT by life-cycle component for different combinations of fuels and light-duty automobiles in 2005 (top) and 2030 (bottom). Click to enlarge.

2005 246