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BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. While diesel and oil-based power is still uneconomic at $60/barrel, the pressure to switch is reduced.

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What is Fleet Electrification?

Driivz

In order to understand fleet electrification, let’s first take a look at electrification in general: Electrification is the process of replacing technologies that use fossil fuels (such as oil, coal and natural gas) with those that use electricity as an energy source. Fleet Electrification – Driving the Revolution.

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IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

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Still, that was not fast enough to meet higher electricity demand around the world that also drove up coal use. Coal use in power generation alone surpassed 10 Gt, accounting for a third of the total increase. Most of that came from a young fleet of coal power plants in developing Asia. Oil demand grew 1.3%

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BP Energy Outlook: 30% growth in global demand to 2035; fuel demand continues to rise, even with EVs & fuel efficiency

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While non-fossil fuels are expected to account for half of the growth in energy supplies over the next 20 years, the Outlook projects that oil and gas, together with coal, will remain the main source of energy powering the world economy, accounting for more than 75% of total energy supply in 2035, compared with 86% in 2015.

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IEA: global energy efficiency progress drops to slowest rate since start of decade

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In Europe, it improved by 2%, up from 1.4% China continued to implement policies designed to shift households and businesses from coal to gas boilers, mainly for air quality reasons. Oil represented the largest share of final demand, at around 41%, but demand growth slowed to 1.5%

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MIT Report Finds Natural Gas Has Significant Potential to Displace Coal, Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Role in Transportation More Limited

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Natural gas will play a leading role in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions over the next several decades, largely by replacing older, inefficient coal plants with highly efficient combined-cycle gas generation, according to a major new interim report out from MIT. The first two reports dealt with nuclear power (2003) and coal (2007).

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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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Hybrid vehicles are projected to grow from 1% of new-car sales in 2010 to close to 50% of sales by 2040, making up about one-third of the global fleet at that time. The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the trade of oil and other liquids.

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