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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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oil shale), and refinery gain. World markets for petroleum and other liquid fuels have entered a period of dynamic change in both supply and demand, the EIA noted, leading to its reassessment of its outlook for long-term global liquid fuels markets in IEO2014. Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production increases by 10 MMbbl/d.

Asia 341
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EIA expects record global petroleum consumption in 2024, with lower crude oil prices

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EIA expects crude oil prices to decrease through 2023 and 2024, even as petroleum consumption increases, largely because growth in crude oil production in the United States and abroad will continue to increase over the next two years. Areas of uncertainty include Russian oil supply and OPEC production.

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Purdue study projects that under likely adoption rates, use of biojet fuel alone will not meet aviation emissions reduction targets for 2050; the need to go above 50% blends

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Uncertainty range of the aviation GHG emissions under the High Oil price scenario (the most optimistic for biojet adoption), given in a box plot depicting the minimum, quartile, and maximum values. The model uses three price scenarios: low oil, reference and high oil. Credit: ACS, Agusdinata et al.

Emissions 225
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands 220
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Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree

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This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. shale production, new oil discoveries, and new project start-ups also differ a lot. shale output.

Oil 150
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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. Click to enlarge.

Oil 247
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Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Such an increase in capacity could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, he suggests.

Oil 261