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BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

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EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oil price in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040, according to IEO2013. The largest components of future non-petroleum liquid fuels production are biofuels in Brazil and the United States, at 0.7

2010 317
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Coal will increase by 1.2% Click to enlarge.

Energy 210
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IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. However, this does not imply a new era of oil abundance, the report cautions. Brazil is set to become a major exporter of oil and a leading global energy producer.

Oil 275
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Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. tonnes per capita, despite a decline due to the recession in 2008-2009, high oil prices and an increased share of natural gas. Coal consumption in China increased by 9.7%

2011 236
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. Biomass and biofuels growth is slower.

Fuel 225
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150