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Oilprices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions, dragged down by some forces beyond the oil market. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks , but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oilprices on Friday.
As oilprices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. These important questions aren’t getting enough attention according to Johnston, whose firm Eurasia Group foresees a fast-approaching supply gap that Saudi Arabia and U.S.
Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oilprice is heading. In fact, we have been highlighting this threat to the energy industry in articles since 2015, for example here , here , here and here.) Why the price of oil could spike before that. Since (non-U.S.
Oilprices appear to be stuck in the $50s per barrel, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t serious supply risks to the market. An unexpected disruption could occur at any moment, as has happened in the past, leading to a sudden and sharp jump in prices. The most near-term supply risk comes from Iraq. bank Citi said.
shale in particular—is effectively capping the oilprice gains from that agreement. Four months after the OPEC/NOPEC deal took effect, oilprices dropped to the levels preceding the agreement, amid concerns over still stubbornly high inventories and rising U.S. Link to original article.
Oilprices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase. That has sparked a renewed sense of optimism among oil traders.
Oilprices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in US shale production. The gains in the rig count come even as oilprices have held steady in the mid- to low-$50s per barrel. The pace and magnitude of each trend will ultimately drive oilprices one way or the other.
With OPEC breaking down and any kind of coordination among its members on price cuts looking increasingly unlikely, it now appears that oilprices could remain below $50 a barrel for a year or more. Stripper-operated wells account for all of the oil production in the state of Illinois, for instance.
The impact of rising oilprices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oilprices. by David Yager for Oilprice.com.
The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oilprices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion.
This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oilprice forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. shale production, new oil discoveries, and new project start-ups also differ a lot. shale output.
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is becoming increasingly evident in the oilpricing policies of the two large Middle Eastern producers. The two countries are currently reigniting the market share and pricing war ahead of the returning U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Link to original article: [link].
Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online. According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. The price acts as a self-correcting mechanism.
An executive from Ford said recently that automakers might feel compelled to invest directly in cobalt production over fears of securing adequate supply. “I Any major disruption to cobalt today would likely curb EV proliferation in the early 2020s, in turn supporting long dated crude oilprices,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned.
That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow. Some level of DUCs is normal, but the ballooning number of uncompleted wells has repeatedly fueled speculation that a sudden rush of new supply might come if companies shift those wells into production.
OPEC’s coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oilprices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oilprices will remain below US$60 this year.
High oilprices, a global economic rebound, and new laws and mandates in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, and the United States, among other countries, are all factors behind the surge in production, according to research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute’s Climate and Energy Program for the website Vital Signs Online.
There have been 5 recession since then until now and I wanted to see if Oil had anything to do with them, because deep in my heart, I knew the most recent recession was directly caused by the oilprice spikes that started in 2007 and peaked in 2008. This increase in oilprices again pushed the economy into a recession.
The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started. It’s been a month now that investors and analysts have been closely watching two main drivers for oilprices: how OPEC is doing with the supply-cut deal, and how US shale is responding to fifty-plus-dollar oil with rebounding drilling activity.
The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by US producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oilprices are killing tight oil companies. Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oilprices as the world production surplus continues. Click to enlarge.
Because of this, the collective US shale industry has been likened to the new “swing producer”: low oilprices force quick cutbacks but higher prices trigger new supplies. A tighter supply of services will drive up rates. Link to original article: [link].
One casualty of the oilprice downturn could be the megaproject. For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. The collapse of oilprices, however, could kill off the megaproject.
Improved supply and expectations of higher oilprices have kept the NEV market booming with strong order books, the CPCA said. For more articles, please visit CnEVPost. The post China's wholesale sales of passenger NEVs total 564,000 units in July, CPCA data show appeared first on CnEVPost.
Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oilprice downturn.
Kicking the can means that production may not fall as fast as expected, which will mean oilprices may not begin to stage a rally as quickly as some had hoped. Moody’s Investors Service sees the contraction as too little to make a significant dent in the global supply gut. Article Source: [link].
It’s been six months now that oilprices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. Having a smaller footprint globally would, in turn, mean that OPEC would wield less influence over the price of oil.
But while it produces at similar levels as Russia and the US, it is long been a vastly more influential player in the oil world. That is because of two reasons—the size of its reserves, and the ability to use latent spare capacity to quickly adjust supply, affording it an outsized influence on crude oilprices.
The US electric power sector burned through a record amount of natural gas in recent weeks, a sign of the shifting power generation mix and also a signal that natural gas supplies could get tighter than many analysts had previously expected. Natural gas prices have traded below $3 per million Btu since the beginning of 2015.
The 2 June 2016 OPEC meeting will be held amid a backdrop of oilprices near $50 per barrel, a sharp drop in Nigerian production due to sabotage, turmoil in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia operating with a new oil minister, and Iran aggressively pumping close to pre-sanction levels. Link to original article: [link].
A number of factors are pushing Saudi Arabia to raise its crude-oil production capacity, but the wide range of potential outcomes suggests that such an increase is a risky strategy for the kingdom and the global environment, according to a new article by an expert from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
This article was first posted on the West Virginia Electric Auto Association (WVEAA) site. The market pricing for vehicle fuels depends largely on global supply/demand and foreign crises with the net result of sometimes extreme price volatility.
Analysts say rising oilprices benefited the company’s petrochemical business, helping to offset losses from its battery unit SK On, which has been facing weaker electric vehicle (EV) battery demand. billion won in the previous quarter due to fewer EV battery shipments.
On September 10 th , the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48—essentially shale production—of 208,000 BOPD (barrels of oil per day). That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. And markets won’t wait to adjust pricing until we hit a balance.
In contrast to what some media sources are suggesting, oil and gas demand will not diminish, on the contrary, oil and gas prices will rise due to a lack of supply. The latter is partly caused by “global warming constraints” and lower oilprices in general. Link to article: [link].
Even a casual glance at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook statistics for Russia shows the tight correlation since 1992 between GDP growth on the one hand and oil and gas output, exports, and prices on the other (economic series available here ). Russia supplied about 30 percent (146.6 percent of GDP in 2014. mmbbl/day) in 2013.
Other findings from the study include: Ethanol policy can have a substantial impact on corn prices. The gap between the intercept of the ethanol supply curve and the oilprice creates large deadweight costs that may overwhelm any external benefits. However, production costs of US corn-ethanol are very high.
An on-board computer system will indicate to the driver the remaining power supply and the nearest charging spot. Clean Fleet Article It would be a financial win-win for all. John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report with archives of over 60 articles and reports about electric vehicles, V2G, biofuels, fleet success and more.
Oilprices regained more ground on Wednesday, pushed higher after equity markets rebounded from an initial selloff at the start of 2019 trading. The price gains are not entirely convincing. On any given day, stock prices offer a clue into investor sentiment in this regard. Link to article: [link].
dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oilprices. As Reuters points out , in dollar terms the price of Brent oil has climbed 9 percent this year, but in yuan terms oil is now nearly 14 percent more expensive. The problem for many emerging markets is that oilprices have been going up at the same time.
With average fuel prices creeping back up, you’ve undoubtedly seen a slew of articles trying to explain why. & Over the past week, countless media outlets published stories about how oil refineries have had to scale back production targets to contend with exceedingly high temperatures. Why are per-gallon fuel prices so high?
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