2020, Congress, Fuel Economy and Oil Prices

Study estimates fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles from 1975–2018 saved 2T gallons of fuel, 17B tons of CO2

Green Car Congress

MAY 3, 2020

A team from the University of Tennessee and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has the fuel savings due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years amount to approximately two trillion gallons of gasoline. Also since 1975, light-duty vehicle travel increased by 134% while fuel use increased by only 37%.

Fuel Economy

Fuel Economy Economy Light 2018

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

Heard At The Show: Snippets from SAE 2009 World Congress

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2009

by 2020 and in one case study they were able to save between 70 and 75 lbs (32 to 34 kg) of vehicle mass for a cost penalty of $280-$350 ($4-$5/lb). Honda demonstrated their “ Walking Assist Device ” at the Congress. Department of Defense and Fuel Economy. billion/year to the DOD’s fuel bill.

Congress

Congress 2009 Cash For Clunkers Li-ion

IHS Markit: global oil demand still growing in the short term despite increasing focus on EVs

Green Car Congress

APRIL 23, 2018

Short-term oil demand is still growing strong and will continue to do so through the end of 2020 despite the market’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and the forecasted future plateau in oil demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit, a global business information provider. Source: IHS Markit 2018.

Oil

Oil Global 2003 2007

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

Green Car Congress

APRIL 8, 2015

In North America, nearly 37% of new light duty vehicles sold in North America are expected to have the feature by 2020, with the rate expected to hit 46% by 2024 and grow steadily. The other driver for SSV technology is consumer demand—present in Europe and some Asia Pacific countries for some time thanks to high fuel prices.

Light

Light North America Global Sale

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Beyond 2035, LDV energy demand begins to level off as increases in travel demand begin to exceed fuel economy improvements in the vehicle stock.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

Net petroleum imports as a share of total US liquid fuels consumed drop from 49% in 2010 to 38% in 2020 and 36% in 2035 in AEO2012. Over the next 10 years, continued development of tight oil (e.g., million barrels per day in 2020, a level not seen since 1994.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also incorporated California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard—which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10% from 2012 through 2020, and incorporated changes in environmental rules at the State level. trillion cubic feet in 2020. Unconventional vehicle sales. Source: EIA.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case. Domestic crude oil production increases sharply in the AEO2014 Reference case, with annual growth averaging 0.8 per year, from 21.5

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 19, 2011

per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2% Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries.

Energy

Energy Economy Global Oil-Sands

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. But after ?2020,

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

Costs will decline with technology improvements and economies of scale, but Li-ion batteries are already being produced in great numbers for consumer devices and are well along their learning curves, according to the NRC report. The steep early drop in cost often experienced with new technologies is not likely.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the central New Policies Scenario, automotive sales in non-OECD markets exceed those in the OECD by 2020, with the center of gravity of car manufacturing shifting to non-OECD countries before 2015. The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls from around 81% today to 75% in 2035. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

EV Driven

Study estimates fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles from 1975–2018 saved 2T gallons of fuel, 17B tons of CO2

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Heard At The Show: Snippets from SAE 2009 World Congress

IHS Markit: global oil demand still growing in the short term despite increasing focus on EVs

Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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