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BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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It also incorporated California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard—which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10% from 2012 through 2020, and incorporated changes in environmental rules at the State level. Beyond 2020, CAFE standards for both passenger cars and light-duty trucks are held constant.

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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Personal air travel (billion seat-miles) grows by an average of 0.7% Domestic crude oil production increases sharply in the AEO2014 Reference case, with annual growth averaging 0.8 Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation. Energy demand for aircraft grows in the AEO2014 Reference case from 2.5

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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Under the central New Policies Scenario, automotive sales in non-OECD markets exceed those in the OECD by 2020, with the center of gravity of car manufacturing shifting to non-OECD countries before 2015. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. Click to enlarge.

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