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The report estimates consumption to have been more than 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. About two-thirds of China’s methanol feedstock is produced from coal and the remainder from coking gas (a by-product of steel production) and natural gas.
Domestic crude oil production increases sharply in the AEO2014 Reference case, with annual growth averaging 0.8 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) through 2016, when domestic production comes close to the historical high of 9.6 Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation. MMbbl/d achieved in 1970.
The United States is projected to become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016, a net pipeline exporter in 2025, and an overall net exporter of natural gas in 2021. In recent years, the US electric power sector’s historical reliance on coal-fired power plants has begun to decline.
AEO2011 assumes the adoption of CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles for model year 2011, as well as joint CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions standards set forth by the EPA and NHTSA for model years 2012 through 2016. In 2035, the average real price of crude oil in the Reference case is $125 per barrel in 2009 dollars.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US crude oil production, which averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, will average 9.2 High oil and coal production also could contribute to diesel consumption growth, EIA notes.
China continued to implement policies designed to shift households and businesses from coal to gas boilers, mainly for air quality reasons. Oil represented the largest share of final demand, at around 41%, but demand growth slowed to 1.5% In 2018, higher oilprices helped dampen demand for road transport fuels.
Because quickly rising natural gas production outpaces domestic consumption, the United States will become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016 and a net exporter of total natural gas (including via pipelines) in 2020. Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oilprices and. than in AEO2012.
On 27 October 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that beginning on 1 January 2020, the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine bunker fuel will be reduced from 3.50% mass by mass (m/m) to 0.50% m/m (35,000 ppm to 5,000 ppm)—five years earlier than many expected. Earlier post.)
The team explored other scenarios including different levels of CO 2 and CH 4 fees applied to the BAU and OPT scenarios; different levels of LDV demand; and different oilprices. Electricity generation from natural gas increases over time in both scenarios, whereas generation from existing coal plants declines.
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