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Study finds plausibly high volumes of Canadian oil sands crudes in US refineries in 2025 would lead to modest increases in refinery CO2 emissions

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An analysis of the US refining sector, based on linear programming (LP) modeling, finds that refining plausibly high volumes of Canadian oil sands crudes in US refineries in 2025 would lead to a modest increase in refinery CO 2 emissions (ranging between 5.4% to 9.3%) from a 2010 baseline, depending upon the supply scenario.

Oil-Sands 247
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Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. —Brandt et al.

Oil 207
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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By 2040, hybrids are expected to account for about 35% of the global light-duty vehicle fleet, up from less than 1% in 2010. billion, as the world’s population grows and more people in developing economies are able to afford cars. In 2010, about 75% of the world’s vehicles were in OECD countries. liters per 100 km) in 2010.

Oil-Sands 309
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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As the world population increases by the estimated 30% from 2010 to 2040, ExxonMobil sees global GDP rising by about 140%, but energy demand by only about 35% due to greater efficiency. The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the trade of oil and other liquids. Click to enlarge. Outlook for Energy.

Energy 252
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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According to the base case forecast, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. Coal will increase by 1.2%

Energy 210
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HEI report identifies potential health consequences from new vehicle fuels and technologies; recommended actions

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Rather than relying as extensively on oil as the source of energy to power vehicles—most of it imported to the United States and Europe from other countries—we will use increasing amounts of ethanol and other potentially renewable fuels as well as electricity.

Fuel 170
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ExxonMobil Outlook projects hybrids and advanced vehicles to account for nearly 50% of cars globally by 2040; fuel demand for for personal vehicles to peak and decline, while commercial transportation demand rises 70%

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Exxon Mobil Corporation’s new The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 , released last week, projects that global energy demand in 2040 will be about 30% higher than it was in 2010 as population grows to 9 billion and global GDP doubles. Growth is led by developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies.

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