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Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge.
The model begins in 2010 with 220 million LDV spark-ignition (gasoline) vehicles, 9.7 million E85 flex-fuel vehicles; 1.8 Among their findings were: RFS2 is satisfied at extreme oilprices (at least $215/barrel). This oilprice encourages biofuel use in the RFS2 timeframe, but not in the long run.
The United States and the European Union have some of the world’s most aggressive policies for alternativefuel promotion, including volumetric mandates, lifecycle fuel-carbon-intensity requirements, and fuel-taxation schemes.
This immediate problem affecting the 2010 Prius relates to software that manages the regenerative and conventional braking system. Oilprice and supply dependencies will continue the search for alternativefuel sources, and battery powered vehicles can have a significant impact on that equation. Earlier post.]
Volatility hurts us too, for as we’ve learned the price of oil can rise sharply in a short period of time. This means our economic stability is at stake because of our reliance on oil. In fact, four of the last five recessions were started by an oilprice spike. [
The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oilprice or expectations of future demand. 2010, to above 140 $/bbl in constant 2010 dollars).
They assessed purchaser technology choice for new vehicles on a cost-effectiveness basis using net present value (NPV) as a decision criterion, with parameters chosen to take account of factors such as consumer myopia with regard to fuel cost savings. Carbon accounting practices have a strong impact on total emissions.
We may be on the brink of an exciting new automotive era powered by alternativefuels – but CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are still expected to increase this year. Tags: Global warming Green cars Latest news emissions ethanol fossil fuelsfuelpricesoilprices petrol prices.
Bringing optimized ICEs as well as alternativefuels and powertrain technologies to market will account for €380-390 billion (US$435-446) of cumulated incremental powertrain costs from 2010 until 2030. GHG abatement in road transport sector will cost approx. 150-200 (US$172-229) per ton of CO 2 e avoided.
It finds that biofuels made with grains and oilseeds show a fall in emissions of 60-80 per cent compared to fossil fuels – well above the 35 per cent objective set by the European Union for 2010. They offer the prospect of increased market competition and oilprice moderation and can help reduce the dependency on fossil fuels.
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